Updated August 9, 2001
The HFx Scoring, proposed in the agenda of the 2001 General Assembly (available at www.uspsa.org/members), specifies that each stage score be multiplied by a "stage multiplier" which is the "average stage hit factor" divided by "average match hit factor". That proposal states that the possibility of flipping (one shooter's score affecting the relative finish of two other shooters) is not present with HFx scoring..
Contrary to this assertion (#1 in the GA Agenda HFx proposal), it is possible for the scores of two competitors to flip-flop based on the score of another competitor.
The first revision of this analysis used the stage points based on a 100% hit value for each stage, rather than calculating stage points based on "hit factor * minimum rounds required * stage multiplier". This version of the analysis has corrected that misunderstanding.
If anyone can sees a flaw in these calculations or conclusions, please bring it to the attention of Rob Boudrie. If my calculations or conclusions are found to be in error, I will publish an immediate correction.
This is best illustrated by example. Take the case of the
following hypothetical two stage match with three competitors, a 12
round stage and a 24 round stage. Example
First, consider a set of results where Moe beats Larry :
(this spreadsheet is available in MS/Excell form at www.boudrie.com/hfx.xls.
Stage 1 Stage 2 H.F. Rounds Multiplier Points H.F. Rounds Multiplier Points Total Moe 9.10 12 0.81 88.43 12.00 24 1.190 343 431.21 Larry 8.00 12 0.81 77.74 12.36 24 1.190 353 430.80 Curley 9.00 12 0.81 87.46 14.00 24 1.190 400 487.36 Stage Avg 8.70 12.79 Match Avg: 10.74 Observe the outcome if the hit factor for Curley is changed from 9.00 to
7.00. Larry now beats Moe as a result of a change in Curley's score:
Stage 1 Stage 2 H.F. Rounds Multiplier Points H.F. Rounds Multiplier Points Total Moe 9.10 12 0.77 84.27 12.00 24 1.228 354 438.02 Larry 8.00 12 0.77 74.08 12.36 24 1.228 364 438.45 Curley 7.00 12 0.77 64.82 14.00 24 1.228 413 477.53 Stage Avg 8.03 12.79 Match Avg: 10.41
The use of average hit factors (for both stages and the entire match) bases each individual's scores on their own performance as related to other competitors. HFx does not deliver benefit #1 (no possibility of scores "flipping" mentioned in the 2001 General Assembly agenda. It appears that the reason HFx generates results so close to the current scoring method is because it also scores each competitor's performance relative to others.
The statement made under benefit #3 (Real-Time results) is inaccurate since all scores are required to calculate the average. Results, both relative and absolute, are available only after all scores have been entered into the computer.
Likewise, the assertion made in item #5 "an individual's scores are not affected by any other shooters [sic] performance" is inaccurate. As the above example shows, scores can flip.